Morgan Stanley predicts China growth 8.4 pct

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will expand 8.4 percent year on year in 2012, down from 9.2 percent last year, a Morgan Stanley economist forecast Monday.

“China will see a slowdown, but a hard landing is unlikely,” Qiao Hong, chief economist for Greater China, Morgan Stanley, said.

The contribution of net exports to GDP will be zero in 2012, which means the growth will be wholly generated by internal demands, Qiao said.

Of the 8.4-percent growth, consumption will account for 4.1 percentage points while investment will contribute 4.3 percentage points, which means China still has to steer it economy from over-reliance on investment to consumption, she said.

Meanwhile, Qiao said China’s inflation would continue a downward trend in the first half of the year, while she did not give a trend outlook for the latter half.

Regarding the property sector, Qiao said she expected certain easing of the tightening policies at local levels as real estate developers have felt increasing capital pressure.


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