Boeing Projects the World Fleet Doubling in Two Decades

Boeing has revised upwards its forecast of market for the next twenty years. It expects 33,500 new aircraft deliveries in 2030, including 23,370 medium-haul aircraft for a total of 4,000 billion.

Four trillion dollars. This, according to Boeing, the value of the cake to be shared for the most part the Boeing and Airbus over the next twenty years. During a three-day Paris Air Show, Boeing has in fact revised upwards its forecast for the coming years. According to the manufacturer, the world fleet will double by 2030, with the delivery of 33,500 new aircraft. Two years ago, during the previous show, Boeing was counting on 29,000 new units. But air travel has rebounded beyond all expectation since then, supported by the growth of low-cost emerging markets such as China, India and Gulf countries.

Boeing projects doubling the world fleet in two decades

Boeing has revised upwards its forecast of market for the next twenty years. It expects 33,500 new aircraft deliveries in 2030, including 23,370 medium-haul aircraft for a total of 4,000 billion.

Four trillion dollars. This, according to Boeing, the value of the cake to be shared for the most part the Boeing and Airbus over the next twenty years. During a three-day Paris Air Show, Boeing has in fact revised upwards its forecast for the coming years. According to the manufacturer, the world fleet will double by 2030, with the delivery of 33,500 new aircraft. Two years ago, during the previous show, Boeing was counting on 29,000 new units. But air travel has rebounded beyond all expectation since then, supported by the growth of low-cost emerging markets such as China, India and Gulf countries.

“At current growth rates of 5.1% per year, passenger traffic will triple over the next twenty years, said Randy Tinseth, the marketing director of commercial aircraft at Boeing. And in twenty years, the Chinese market will be the equivalent of the North American and European, “he added.

Main beneficiary of the surge: the medium-range single-aisle aircraft, which should account for 70% of shipments and 48% of sales over the next twenty years. This segment is exclusively shared between the A320 and B737 family today, the forecasts were revised upwards. “The single-aisle benefit from the growth of “low cost” and emerging markets, and continue to win market share from regional aircraft,” said Randy Tinseth.

Airbus and Boeing to increase production (both plan to get to 42 single-aisle per month by 2012), “while leaving room for one or two new entrants,” says the Vice President of Boeing, in reference to Chinese and Canadian projects. A diagnosis shared by Airbus in its forecasts 2009-2028.

Other trendy model: the twin-aisle long-haul segment in which Boeing and Airbus have big bet, with the launch of the first 787 and A350 respectively. Boeing anticipates a market of 7,330 aircraft over twenty years, or 22% of total volume and 43% in value. A market segment on which the two aircraft manufacturers will no competitor prior to the end of the next decade.

However, forecasts of Boeing and Airbus continue to diverge on the jumbo segment. Boeing, which has simply upgrade its B747, expects a potential of 820 units, against about 1,500, according to Airbus, which has been the biggest challenge with the A380s. For now, the market seems rather to agree with the first. Since 2000, the jumbo large aircraft accounted for only 3% of shipments and orders.